Carbon-centric Climate Models fail Consistently

By Viv Forbes

 



In 2007 a computer model predicted that the Arctic would be free of ice by 2013. But in 2013, Arctic ice was abundant.

Two years ago the massive UK government computer model predicted that “drought was the new normal”. And a recent UK Met Office forecast was that this winter would be drier than normal. Just two months later, the UK suffered huge floods.

Here in Australia, former Climate Commissioner Flannery is famed for his frequent failed forecasts on droughts and sea levels. The Gore Effect is equally infamous – it produces snow wherever Big Al delivers another sermon on the fire and brimstone that awaits us if the wicked world keeps using demon carbon fuels.

There is no measurable evidence that carbon dioxide (CO2) controls global warming. In fact it may be the reverse – ocean temperature controls atmospheric CO2. We know that the massive oceans do slowly expel and absorb CO2 as water temperature rises and falls. Moreover, all five global temperature datasets show zero global warming since 1997 despite an increase of at least 40% in man’s CO2 emissions during that period.

All western governments have done massive damage to their economies and their electricity generators and consumers by putting their faith in computer models based on one fragile assumption – that future global temperatures are determined mainly by the miniscule levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. They compound this error by assuming that water vapour feedback will multiply any warming effect from carbon dioxide. In fact, water probably plays a negative temperature-moderating role.

Fed with false input assumptions of ever-rising carbon dioxide and magnified with positive water feedbacks, the models naturally produce output forecasts with a chronic warm bias, all of which have proved wrong. Garbage in, garbage out.

Honest weather forecasters never claim reliability beyond a few days. To believe that a mechanistic computer model can produce useful predictions for decades ahead shows that zealotry has replaced scientific prudence in too many circles.

Climate variables never continue along straight-line trends – all are affected by cycles and oscillations in Earth’s orbit, sun-spots, cosmic rays, ocean currents, cloud cover, volcanic activity and the solar system. Practical forecasters have long recognised these cyclic influences, and some show skill in projecting them.

The sun is the chief driver of Earth’s climate oscillations, and it is now in a quiet phase. It is time to reject the failed projections of carbon-centric climate models, restore our battered economies and prepare our infrastructure for whatever surprises the real climate has in store.


Viv Forbes,
Rosewood    Qld   Australia
forbes@carbon-sense.com

Viv Forbes is a science graduate, geologist, farmer, Chairman of the Carbon Sense Coalition and has spent a lifetime studying climate, weather and the science of carbon.

If you would like to read more see:

“Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” – BBC News Dec 2007:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

Al Gore forecasts ice-free arctic:
http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/17207-al-gore-forecasted-ice-free-arctic-by-2013-ice-cover-expands-50

Testing 73 climate models – “Epic Fail”:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-observations-for-tropical-tropospheric-temperature/

Climate models are completely ineffective at predicting global temperatures:
http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/09/latest-ipcc-climate-models-unable-to-simulate-major-components-earths-climate.html

UK weather forecasts have a disastrous warm bias:
http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=c920274f2a364603849bbb505&id=8aea81cace&e=e1638e04a2
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2560310/No-global-warming-did-NOT-cause-storms-says-one-Met-Offices-senior-experts.html

Farmers Almanac beats government forecasters:
http://www.thegwpf.org/report-farmers-almanac-accurate-u-s-climate-prediction-center/

Official US Government forecasts never saw this winter coming:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-18/the-official-forecast-of-the-u-dot-s-dot-government-never-saw-this-winter-coming

Australia’s Climate Commissioner Flannery fails at forecasting:
http://ipa.org.au/publications/1888/tim-flannery-climate-prophet

Within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is”:
http://carbon-sense.com/2010/12/03/famous-forecasts-snow/

Chaos theory explains why weather & climate cannot be predicted beyond 3 weeks:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/chaos-theory-explains-weather-climate.html

Farmer Fred exposes computer “research in depth”:
http://economics.org.au/2011/07/you-cant-pull-the-wool-over-farmer-fred/

Climate models worthless for predicting beyond 10 years:
http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/10/ipcc-climate-physicist-verifies-climate-model-predictions-are-worthless-for-periods-longer-than-a-de.html

Temperature is not controlled by carbon dioxide:
See this graph  http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01a5117479f7970c-pi
And this discussion: http://www.c3headlines.com/2014/02/climate-factcheck-runaway-tipping-point-global-warming-no-empirical-merit-those-stubborn-facts.html

Forget Global Warming – Global Cooling looks more likely:
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/06/15/forget-the-temperature-plateau-earth-undergoing-global-cooling-since-2002-climate-scientist-dr-judith-curry-attention-in-the-public-debate-seems-to-be-moving-away-from/




Cartoon sourced from Andy Semple

Political climate change

by Viv Forbes

Cartoonist Mark Knights

 

Climate Alarmists Rebuffed in Australian Election.

There was good news and bad news in the election. 

The good news was that the Labor/Green/Independent coalition that had led Australia into the unwinnable war on carbon was decisively rejected. The Labor vote fell to its lowest level for a century, the Green vote fell 3% and the independents who helped create and support this destructive green coalition are no longer in Parliament.

 

The other feature of this campaign was the high public interest in the election and the big dissatisfaction with all major parties. Lots of small single-issue parties were formed and contested the election. Most of these small parties were also opposed to the carbon tax.

And a few of them were smart enough to maintain strict discipline among themselves on how preference votes were directed, ensuring that some of them were elected to the Senate. 

There was one bad note in the election. Two prominent new small parties, the Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Katter Australia Party (KAP) foolishly directed significant preferences to the ALP and/or Greens ahead of the Liberal/Nationals. This was done partly out of spite, but mainly in a big gamble that did not always pay off.

 

Bob Katter’s largely conservative supporters reacted badly to him “assisting the enemy” and his primary vote fell dramatically. His hold on his own electorate has become marginal. Clive Palmer’s pact with the Greens got less publicity before the election and he did surprisingly well all over Australia. He probably got one Senator elected because of his shady deal with the green devils, but then in another state a Green Senator will probably be elected on Palmer preferences. So we may be stuck for six years with at least one Green senator who should not have been elected. 

Another feature of the election was the minimal support for the anti-coal-seam-gas party.

 

Now we need to make sure the new government dismantles the whole climate industry

 

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How to Untangle the Climate Bureaucracy: Last In, First Out 

Abolishing the Climate Commission is a good start. However there are still seven climate agencies and 33 climate schemes in seven different departments yet to be rooted out. 

What is the best way to unwind this huge un-necessary bureaucratic empire?  

Use the old union maxim – last in, first out. Whatever parliament created in one silly summer afternoon can be unmade just as quickly. 

Don’t merge, don’t reorganise, don’t rebrand – ABOLISH. 

And do it quickly before more damage is done to our economy, our energy supplies and our environment. 

 

And don’t worry about the climate. It will go on doing what it has always done - it will change

 

 

**************

Abolish the Unreliable Energy Targets 

Killing the carbon tax is not enough to restore sanity to Australia’s energy policies - the Renewable Energy Targets must also be abolished. 

No matter what laws are passed in Parliament, wind/solar power can never supply reliable economical grid power - their fundamental flaws are too numerous. 

Their low energy density means that large areas of land must be blighted to collect a significant quantity of power. 

Moreover, their intermittent supply pattern means that they cannot maintain a predictable electricity supply. 

And even if some magic cheap storage system is invented, the expensive wind/solar generating facilities will remain under-utilised for more than 60% of the time, and up to 30% of any energy stored will be lost in transfers.

Finally, without storage, green power needs full backup from reliable generation plants (which must also operate intermittently). 

Germany is proving that an advanced society cannot survive on wind/solar energy, even with support from French nuclear power, Swedish hydro-power, Russian gas and Polish coal. 

For too long, green dreamers have forced their daft ideas on Australia’s power supply network. We need to employ real power engineers and grown-up energy technology.   

The Renewable Energy Targets should be renamed “Unreliable Energy Targets” and abolished immediately. 

.



Agnes Water desal plant a major first for CQ

This made page 1 and 3 of this week's edition of the Queensland Telegraph here

http://www.queenslandtelegraph.com/read/    It follows on from the recent debate about the virtues of reverse osmosis plants as proposed for treating CSG excess contaminated water.

The pristine waters of Bustard Bay, home of  CQ's first ocean desalination plant at Agnes Water near the township of 1770.

By John Mikkelsen

CENTRAL Queensland now has its first ocean desalination plant, with taps soon to flow fresh water from the sea at Agnes Water.

The $40 million plant is in the final commissioning stages for Gladstone Regional Council, after five years of battling protestors and Mother Nature.

Initially it is expected to meet about half of the small community’s water needs in coming months, with cheaper existing underground supplies providing the remainder. 

Boasting Queensland’s most northern surf beach and a thriving tourism industry, Agnes Water overlooks the pristine waters  of Bustard Bay first explored by Lieutenant James Cook in 1770.

A section of the $40 million desal plant.

Gladstone Regional Council inherited the scheme from the former Miriam Vale Shire  in 2007 following the Beattie Labor government’s forced amalgamations. When it decided to press ahead with the desalination plant and sewerage treatment project rather than risk losing a $27 million State subsidy, a determined protest was launched based on environmental concerns and claimed exorbitant costs.

THE Community Over Desalination (COD) protest group fought the long campaign with the backing of former member for Burnett Rob Messenger, claiming the site between Agnes Water and Deepwater National Park would place a nesting beach for endangered loggerhead turtles at risk.

However this was denied by council and the Bligh government, with construction starting in January 2010 after studies ruled out alternative schemes including a costly pipeline from Gladstone’s Awoonga Dam..

It was claimed that dwindling underground supplies would be unable to meet the growing community’s needs. During the  desal plant’s planning stages, scientists including chief  climate change  commissioner Tim Flannery were warning Australia’s prevailing drought would never end and major rivers would cease flowing.

The same claims inspired the Bligh government to press ahead with the state’s other major multi- million dollar desal plant at Tugan on the Gold Coast, a recycling plant and hundreds of kilometers of pipelines linking storages in South East Queensland.

Irony prevailed when record floods occurred  in late 2010, 2011 and again this year, filling dams and replenishing underground supplies including those at Agnes Water.

Council CEO Stuart Randle yesterday said  the new desal plant was expected to meet the community’s needs for six months of the year, with cheaper underground supplies providing the remainder.

He told the Telegraph total cost of water and electricity when the plant was at full capacity was expected to be about $2 a kilolitre.

“The desal plant option was chosen by the Miriam Vale Council in 2007 when the existing town supply was under stress and population growth was very strong.

“Since that time the population growth has stalled and successive good wet seasons have replenished the aquifer.

“The result is that the town is currently able to be serviced from the much cheaper groundwater supplies. The next drought and renewed interest in the Agnes Water region will change that at some time”.

Mr Randle said the present commissioning process was “complex” and would include cleaning of the inlet lines using specialist contractors.

“ Once that is complete the process moves into the acceptance testing phase which will take a further month to complete”.

TRILITY, a water infrastructure management firm, will operate the plant on council’s behalf.

“ It will be paid for fixed and variable costs, much the same way that phone bills are separated into line rental and call charges. The fixed portion is shared across the service connections so, as the community grows, the plant will become more cost effective.

 “The variable cost of treating seawater at full capacity, excluding electricity, is about 24 cents per kilolitre. The cost of electricity at present equates to about 50 cents per kilolitre.Total cost of production at full capacity is expected to be around $2.00 per kilolitre”.

Cr Ren Lanzon told The Telegraph he had inspected a similar ocean desalination plant during a recent visit to his homeland of Malta, and he did not envisage environmental problems.

“The outflow of the plant fell from a cliff face into the sea, giving  the Maltese a rare sight, a waterfall.

“The famously Blue Mediterranean is about three times more salty than our blue Pacific. Oddly it's still a favourite fishing spot for the Maltese. Apparently the fish don't mind the mineral outflow from the plant,” Cr Lanzon said. 

Curbing the GW Virus

Curbing the GW Virus? by Viv Forbes

 

  A virulent virus is being spread at international climate conferences. 

Called the GW Virus (short for Manmade Global Warming Virus), the symptoms are a psychotic fear of the word “carbon”, a compulsion to blame man’s industry for every bad weather event, an urge to weave a warm bias into every weather report and forecast, and a morbid fascination with windmills.  

The GW virus was first identified in the British Parliament in 1988 and spread quickly to the vulnerable BBC. It is an airborne virus and was soon spread by junketing politicians to NASA and the UN, thence to an Earth Conference in Rio in 1992, and then to Kyoto in 1997. The infection peaked in Copenhagen in 2009, when thousands of politicians, academics, officials and reporters became feverish. 

Cartoon by Paul Zanetti

Because of its isolation, Australia had not developed immunity to this virus, and it quickly took root in the ABC, thoroughly infected many politicians especially the governing ALP/Greens coalition, and then spread via government grant meetings to the CSIRO and every University in the land. 

In Australia, incurable cases are sent to an isolation ward called the Climate Commission, headed by chronic MGW sufferer, Tim Flannery. Like vultures perched on a dead tree, these dedicated doomsters see droughts and heat waves in every weather event, even when large areas of the country are suffering floods and unseasonal cold. 

The only protection against the GW virus is immunisation with a shot of climate history vaccine. This helps “at risk” alarmists to accept that there is nothing new about fires, floods, droughts, cyclones, heat waves, snow storms or variations in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

 

To curb the further spread of this virulent and destructive virus, infected sufferers must be banned from climate conferences and all infected politicians must be quarantined in their offices.